With one of the fastest-growing regions for Catholicism, and a significant rise in both adherents and clergy, Africa’s demographic shift has led to increasing speculation about the possibility of the first African pope.
Among the names often mentioned is Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana, a respected Church figure who has previously served as president of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace and has been considered papabile in previous conclaves. With the papal conclave having begun on May 7, 2025, the question becomes more urgent: is the Catholic Church ready to elect its first African pope?
This possibility is tied to several factors. Africa now boasts 29 cardinals, with a voting participation rate of 62.1%, on par with Asia. Over the past decade, the continent has recorded the second-highest growth rate of voting-age cardinals, increasing from 8% to 12%. This reflects Africa’s rising significance within the global Church.Yet, Africa is not alone in this demographic shift. The Asia-Pacific region has seen an even steeper rise, now accounting for 18% of voting-age cardinals, up from 10% in 2013.
While African representation has grown, it still faces competition from other rapidly developing regions. Moreover, Vatican analysts remain cautious, citing the limited public scrutiny African cardinals receive compared to their Western counterparts—an issue that can affect perceived transparency and readiness for the papacy.
The papal conclave is the highly secretive process by which a new pope is elected. Only cardinals under the age of 80 are eligible to vote, and they must take an oath of secrecy before entering the Sistine Chapel. Voting is conducted via secret ballot, with up to four rounds per day until a candidate achieves a two-thirds majority. Black smoke signals an inconclusive vote; white smoke heralds the election of a new pope, followed by the traditional announcement of Habemus Papam (“We have a pope”) from the balcony of St Peter’s Basilica.
In doctrine, while the conclave is said to be divinely guided, various political, theological, and pastoral factors influence the decision. Cardinals typically seek a candidate who demonstrates spiritual depth, theological insight, administrative capability, and moral authority. In today’s context, the next pope is also expected to address a deeply polarised Church and ongoing issues such as clerical sexual abuse, secularisation, and declining Western congregations.
According to an article by The Washington Post, titled “A Visual Guide on how the next Pope will be elected.” the 267th pope will inherit a divided Church. Some Catholics hope for continuity with Pope Francis’s reformist agenda, which has emphasised inclusion and outreach to the marginalised. Others favour a return to traditional doctrines and liturgical practices. This ideological tension—between reform and tradition—is central to the election and may influence perceptions of African candidates, whose views are often seen as either staunchly conservative or reformist, depending on the lens through which they are viewed.
An African pope could represent a powerful shift, offering new pastoral priorities. Many African Catholics are deeply concerned with poverty, migration, conflict, and social justice—issues that could shape Vatican policy under an African pope. However, critics worry that such a change might also embolden more conservative stances, particularly on matters such as sexuality, gender roles, and clerical discipline, areas where African bishops have historically taken traditionalist positions.Despite the excitement, significant challenges remain. The Catholic Church has long been Eurocentric, with the papacy largely viewed through a Western lens.
Elevating an African pope would require overcoming institutional inertia and long-standing cultural biases. Moreover, African Catholics may seek more than symbolic leadership—they may expect policy changes and a realignment of priorities toward the Global South.
This expectation could become a double-edged sword. If the chosen African cardinal were perceived as overly aligned with Western Vatican culture, he might face criticism at home. Conversely, a pope pushing for deep change might alienate entrenched interests within the Curia and among traditionalist factions.
Still, the election of an African pope would be a powerful symbol of inclusion and recognition of Africa’s rising prominence in Catholic life. It would challenge perceptions of Eurocentrism, energise the faithful in the Global South, and potentially reshape how the Vatican engages with the developing world.
Even if this conclave does not result in an African pope, the trajectory is clear: Africa’s influence in the Church is growing and is likely to continue shaping its future direction.
Geopolitical dynamics, regional rivalries, and the Church’s preference for continuity may still hinder an African candidacy. Yet, never before has the idea of an African pope been so plausible. Whether or not the College of Cardinals takes this historic step, Africa’s voice is already reshaping the Catholic Church—and its role is only set to grow.
